Basic Informations

C.V

Dr. Moataz Eliw Mostafa Ahmed

Master Title

An Economic Study of Egyptian Exports of Potatoes Crop

Master Abstract

An Economic Study of Egyptian Exports of Potatoes Crop Summary Egyptian Agricultural Export Development is one of the means of treating the continuing deficit in the all balance of trade and the Egyptian agricultural in order to increase the yield of foreign exchange, and to cover the increased cost of imports to bridge the food gap resulting from continued population growth alongside increased demand resulting from income improved, so the increase in general and exports in particular, agricultural exports will contribute significantly to the achievement of economic development goals and build a strong national economy in an attempt to reduce the deficit in the Egyptian balance of trade which is 11.64 billion pounds, the balance as an average during the period (2000-2014). Total exports which cover the total imports was approximately 47.23% as an average for the same period. In contrast, the average total deficit in the Egyptian agricultural trade balance reached during the same period at 1.94 billion pounds, while the exports which cover the agricultural imports was about 35.17% as an average for that period (1). The potato crop is one of the most important vegetable crops in Egypt because of its productive and exordial position of its position; as the planted area of potatoes crop in the Republic is approximately 19.29% represents about 409.535 thousand acres of the total vegetable area, amounting to about 2,113 million acres, and the total production of Egyptian potato crop is approximately 4.61 million tonnes, representing approximately 21.15% of the total production of the Egyptian Greens, amounting to about 21.80 million tones. the value of exports of Egyptian potatoes represents 1.884million pounds which is about 8.75% of Egypt's total value of agricultural exports, amounting to approximately 21.070 billion pounds (representing approximately 10.8%) of the total Egyptian exports amounting to approximately 195. 276 billion pounds (current prices) in 2014 (2). (1) United Nation, Internet, Comtrade database. (2) The Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Economic Affairs Sector, Central Administration of Agricultural Economics, Annual Bulletin of Agricultural Economics 2014. The problem of the study: Despite the growing global demand for agricultural products in general, however, the Egyptian potato exports are not increasing at the rates desired but its exports are fluctuated, especially with the global interest in the health and environmental requirements, as well as intense competition faced by the Egyptian potatoes to foreign markets, especially the EU market; and the refusal of many from overseas markets for Egyptian potatoes for non-conformity with the standards required for these markets, as well as being infected with brown rot, leading to the low value of exports of potatoes, including a negative impact on agricultural trade balance and national alike. The The Most Important Results: Regarding crop potatoes summer where the percentage increase for the period average (2000-2014), at a rate of approximately 241.37% of the cultivated area, 11.9% of productivity Alfdanah, 281.28% of production kidneys, while the yield of potatoes indigo percentage increase on average for the period (2000-2014), at about 160.41% of the cultivated area, 12.34% of productivity Alfdanah, 166.18% for the production of kidneys, and the yield of winter potatoes percentage increase on average for the period (2000-2014) at a rate of about 302.48 % of the cultivated area, 11.29% of productivity Alfdanah, 343.27% of the total production, while the total lugs of the potato crop has an average rate of increase for the same period stood at about 326.08% of the cultivated area, 11.63% of productivity Alfdanah 0.269, 61% of the production of the kidneys. The deficit in the trade balance at current prices between -28 271 -328 157 billion pounds and ranges in 2003 and 2014 respectively, with an average of about -116 402 billion pounds, and ranges deficit in the trade balance at constant prices between -21,958 and -227,382 billion pounds 2003 and 2014, respectively, with an average of about -79 464 billion pounds, ranging deficit in agricultural trade balance between current prices and -3.730 -93.995 billion pounds in 2004 and 2014 respectively, with an average of about -19 430 billion pounds, ranging deficit in the balance agricultural trade at constant prices between -2.874 and -65.130 billion pounds in 2004 and 2014 respectively, averaging about - 134.330 billion pounds, ranging from the relative importance of the agricultural trade balance at current prices and installed during the study between 6.61% and 28.64 period % in 2009 and 2014, respectively, with an average of about 16.10%. Results from the survey that there are many problems facing Egyptian exports of potatoes and for collecting the crop for export and which affect the export efficiency of the process, where the exploratory study showed that these problems represent about 18.23% of the interests of exporters, followed by the problem of financing and insurance on exports in the same percentage 18.23% of the interests of exporters, and comes in third place the problem of sorting stations and staging and accounted for about 15.16% of the interests of exporters, followed in fourth place the problem of the government's actions towards exporters that which affects the export efficiency of crop potatoes accounting for these problems around 11.91% of the interests of exporters, followed in fifth place and even eighth own internal problems to transport, storage and cooling, and problems related to the importing countries, and finally marketing information about 11.37%, 8.66%, 8.30%, 8.12% each of them respectively. Recommendations: 1. Promote the potato growers to increase the cultivated crop and take care with it by increasing the price of the crop farm and announced in advance. 2. Increase the competitiveness of the crop in foreign markets as well as support the exporters to face the intense competition, by encouraging research in the field of production and breeding to produce high varieties and disease-resistant, and early in production which leads to increased production and then cut export prices; thus the imports increase. 3. Open new export markets which interest not only with the standard specifications, as much interest in low price, such as Africa, Central Asia. Control the imported seeds and tested well before they enter the country in order to meet the intransigence of the European Union and resurrection of putting obstacles in front of the Egyptian potato exports through issues consecutive decisions from the European Commission to halt imports of potatoes under the pretext of It`s infected with brown rot. In fact, it is due to the competition between the Egyptian potato exports and EU countries exports. 4. Attend to the production of winter loop that produced shows in January and March, a period in which production is not available in the European Union as the export season extends to the end of June. Also they should urge for exporting to the Lebanese market in the period of exemption from customs duties from the first of February to end of March. 5. Create an integrated database on the markets where they export and the competition markets for our exports of Egyptian potatoes. 6. Continue to change places of potatoes destined for export to new areas. 7. There are exportable possibilities to export high yield of Egyptian potatoes to the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, Oman and the markets where the penetration rate of the Egyptian potato crop focus in recent years to the period of the study. 8. Encourage Arab economic blocs for the development of intra-regional trade among them, especially since the GATT look to economic blocs as one country and give them privileges, so the efficiency of export can be raise.

PHD Title

IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY ON MAJOR CROPS IN EGYPT

PHD Abstract

ABSTRACT Egypt's agricultural policy passed through various stages during the period (1981-1985). The agricultural sector suffered from governmental intervention policies, including determining areas to be cultivated with each crop, underpricing of agricultural products, and marketing of agricultural products, export, and import of farming crops, isolating domestic prices of farm commodities from world prices. As of the mid-1980s, economic reform policies started to be implemented. The agriculture sector has been the first sector in the national economy to implement economic reform policies and market mechanisms. As a result, agriculture has moved to a free-market economy. Hence government intervention in price policy has been abolished, prices of the agricultural commodity have been liberalized, and the private sector started to import, export, and agrarian market inputs. By the late 1980s, Egypt's agricultural sector has been acting according to the strategy of market mechanisms. Economic decisions related to production, pricing, marketing, and production inputs have been liberalized. And since economic reform policies usually come in the form of a package of interrelated policy programs. So, implementing such policies usually leads to the emergence of a successive series of impacts on the revenues and production costs of some crops as one of the methods used in quantitative analysis of agricultural policies. In addition, the agricultural price policy represents great importance in the national economic structure in general, and farming projects in particular. Where it aims to reduce the wide fluctuations in prices and agricultural incomes. Besides, realizing a certain level of income for farmers and achieving stability so that farmers can put their future production plans safely. Agricultural price policy aims to achieve optimal relations between agricultural and non-agricultural prices. Moreover, hence agricultural and non-agricultural incomes. In most cases, agricultural prices are determined based on current supply conditions, which is naturally affected by lagged price levels. It is, in turn, leads to continued price fluctuations. It is well known that the unfair prices of agricultural commodities represent an obstacle to agricultural economic development. Accordingly, it is necessary to develop an agrarian price policy that integrates with the comprehensive economic development policy. Agricultural policy affects production directly and indirectly. Increasing agricultural production is an urgent necessity in developing countries, especially those countries endowed with agrarian resources in their national economy. The main factor that positively affects production is offering incentives and guarantees of farmers to encourage them to improve the production of agricultural commodities. Besides, increasing growth rate and the good distribution of production inputs, as well as achieving stability in prices of agricultural commodities, which ensures relative stability in farmers' incomes. It means that price stability can lead to organizing the process of agricultural production. This helps achieve economic efficiency, where it leads to minimizing risk and uncertainties to the degree that enables farmers to design their production plans and organize their investments under improved conditions. Agriculture remains an essential sector in the Egyptian economy and a key pillar for food security. The Ministry of Planning, Monitoring, and Administrative Reform's databases reveal that investment in agriculture for fiscal year 2016/2017 amounted to US$ 9.2 billion, including 2.8 % of overall public investment. Agriculture's contribution to GDP averaged 13.2 % between 2000 and 2017, while employment in agriculture averaged 29 % over the same period. It was down from 58 % in 1960 and 34% in 1990. Besides, the total value of agricultural production is estimated at US$ 20.55 billion, of which plant production represents 51.24% worth US$ 10.53 billion. Moreover, the value of cereal crops' production amounted to US$ 6.54 billion, representing 62.11% of the total value of plant production. The average per capita share of grains is estimated at 260.7 kg/annum. While the value of vegetable crops' production amounted to US$ 2.01 billion, representing 19.09% of the total value of plant production. The average per capita share of vegetables is estimated at 79.3 kg/year. Across governorates, the percentage of agriculture in total employment and GDP varies considerably because of differences in agro-climatic conditions as well as a degree of economic diversification. Regionally, Upper Egypt governorates have a higher share of employment in agriculture, while Lower Egypt has a relatively higher percentage of GDP stemming from agriculture. This study was designed to assess the impact of agricultural price policies on wheat, maize, rice and potatoes consumers and producers, and the welfare impact of government interventions. To estimate the effect of government intervention (as opposed to non-intervention) on welfare gains, using a partial analysis (traditional), Partial Equilibrium Model using (GAMS), To this end, using secondary and primary data on production, consumption, and other related variables from 2000 to 2017. Also, assess the current and future food security by applied a simulation model using vensim software to predict the results for the next decade. Also, an almost ideal demand model (AID) was used to assess various price elasticities across the international markets. Besides, use One Way ANOVA to know are farmers' perceptions and attitudes towards the problems facing them. Besides ARDL Model to study the impact of supply response of wheat, maize, rice cultivated area to changes in farmgate price and net revenue. The main findings indicate that the government follows a neutral policy regarding wheat, maize, rice, and potatoes production. Besides, society incurs losses in wheat production under interventions or non-interventions by the government. The results also show that the government has been imposing implicit taxes on maize, rice, and potatoes producers and that they will be better off without government intervention. Besides, domestic wheat and maize production have a comparative advantage over imported wheat and maize. With government intervention, consumer surplus and producer losses and net economic losses are higher. These results indicate that the government should strive to increase domestic wheat and maize production while keeping intervention in the wheat and maize market to a minimum. Also, the results show that by 2030, Egypt's dependence on wheat and maize imports will increase by 80.30% and 61.97%, respectively. Although domestic wheat and maize production and productivity are expected to increase in the future, wheat and maize food security will decline due to high population growth in the country. The results of the AID model show that the demand for wheat and maize in the Egyptian market is elastic. Also, approximately 73% of wheat comes from the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and the United States of America, and 56% of maize imports come from Argentina, Brazil, and the United States. In regards to the relative importance of problems, wheat farmers confront indicate that lack of a fair procurement price ranks first 12.87%. Followed by lack of subsidy on production inputs and their high prices ranked second 11.88%, oligopoly in wheat purchase markets and the weak role of agricultural extension ranked third 10.7%, and fourth 10.5%, respectively. High production cost and low revenue per acre ranked fifth 8.91%, while high loss during harvesting ranked sixth 8.51%. Long-distance between farms and markets ranked seventh and last by accounting for 7.92% of the problem's wheat farmers in Minia governorate confront. Furthermore, the problem that rice production is influenced by limiting rice planted area ranks first, with relative importance amounting to 100%. The problem that farmer's income is impacted by limiting rice planted area ranks second, with relative importance amounting to 99.22%. The problem that farmgate price is influenced by banning rice exports ranks third, with relative importance amounting to 93.75%. Besides, the problem that farmgate price is influenced by limiting rice planted area ranks fourth, with relative importance amounting to 88.28%. Also, Lack of new high yielding varieties to compensate for limiting rice planted area ranks fifth, with relative importance amounting to 82.03%. Farmers' carelessness regarding implementing the decree issued to limit rice planted area ranks sixth, with relative importance amounting to 74.61%. High production cost and low revenue per acre plus shortage in fertilizers and pesticides rank seventh, with relative importance amounting to 14.06%. Infections by diseases and pests rank eighth, with relative importance amounting to 13.28%. Low productivity ranks ninth, with relative importance amounting to 12.89%. The shortage of skilled labor ranks tenth, with relative importance amounting to 6.25%. Significant loss during harvesting ranks eleventh, with relative importance amounting to 3.125%. Based on the findings of the overall study, it is recommended that I. Continue implementing food subsidy policy and reforming the implemented price policy at the sectoral and national levels. II. Setting appropriate procurement prices for crops at some point in time must be revisited periodically based on evolutions in the production costs of producing such crops, yield, the profitability of competing for crops, evolutions in international prices, and comparing domestic to world demand for such crops. III. Improve the state of food security depending on domestic production through improving the self-sufficiency rate in food commodities. IV. Self-sufficiency rate in wheat, wheat flour, and maize can be raised by reducing losses along the chain, in addition to devoting attention to some other factors. V. It is crucial to study the international prices of crops periodically to use them as guides when setting the prices of export and import crops, which helps in promoting exports and reducing imports. VI. Establish an Agricultural Policy Information Center that comprises an integrated field information unit and a unit for technical aspects related to the implementation of agricultural policy. Keywords: Agricultural Price Policy, Food Security, Egyptian Economy, Government Intervention, Almost Ideal Demand Model, ARDL Model, Egypt.